The El Niño/La Niña southern Oscillation (ENSO) has der major affect on climate trends in assorted parts of a world. This naturally developing phenomenon involves fluctuating oceano temperatures in a central e eastern equatorial Pacific, coupled com changes in a atmosphere. Scientific progress on the understanding e modelling that this phenomenon has actually improved prediction skills to within der range of 1 to nine months in advance, giving society the possibility to prepare para associated perils such as heavy rains, floods e drought.

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current Situation e Outlook

November 2021

La Niña problems have emerged in the subtropical Pacific, com both oceanic and atmospheric signs reaching a necessary thresholds during the September-October 2021 period. Ns latest forecasts a partir de the global Producing Centres of Long-Range forecast indicate a high possibilidade (90%) of subtropical Pacific sea surface ar temperatures staying at La Niña levels until the fim of 2021, and a moderate acaso (70-80%) para them come persist in ~ La Niña levels with the o primeiro dia quarter of 2022. Many models show that the 2021/2022 La Niña is likely to be a weak-to-moderate event. National Meteorological and Hydrological solutions (NMHSs) will certainly closely faixas changes in a state that El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over a coming months e provide updated outlooks.

In summary:


The subtropical Pacific transitioned come La Niña in September-October 2021, com below-average temperatures in a surface e sub-surface oceano across ns central e eastern Pacific Ocean. Atmospheric conditions ~ ~ also constant with der weak La Niña.Model predictions and expert evaluate indicate der 90% probability for La Niña throughout December 2021- February 2022. Porque o the January-March 2022 season, there is a 70 to 80% acaso of La Niña to persist.The predicted multi-model typical of sea surface temperature anomalies in ns east-central Pacific ocean is most negative in December 2021 or January 2022 (around -1.1 degrees Celsius), thereafter gradually weakening towards ENSO-neutral levels in March-May 2022.

The state of ENSO will continue to be closely monitored by Members and partners. An ext detailed interpretations of a implications porque o regional climate variability will be carried o fim routinely by a climate forecasting community over a coming months and will be made obtainable through the national Meteorological and Hydrological Services.


La Niña conditions have occurred in the tropical Pacific, with both oceanic and atmospheric indicators reaching a necessary thresholds during the September-October 2021 period. Ns latest forecasts em ~ the globais Producing Centres of Long-Range forecasts indicate naquela high oportunidade (90%) of subtropical Pacific sea surface temperatures continuing to be at La Niña levels until the fim of 2021, e a moderate acaso (70-80%) ao them come persist in ~ La Niña levels through the o primeiro dia quarter that 2022. Many models suggest that the 2021/2022 La Niña is most likely to be a weak-to-moderate event. National Meteorological and Hydrological services (NMHSs) will closely acompanhar changes in ns state of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over a coming months and provide update outlooks.

After an extended period of ENSO-Neutral problems during a middle that 2021 (i.e., neither El Niño nor La Niña to be occurring), observations of ns equatorial Pacific Ocean and atmosphere indicate that La Niña conditions developed during September-October 2021. Sea surface temperature anomalies in a eastern Pacific ocean were mostly between -0.5 and -1.0 degrees Celsius, indicative that weak La Nina levels. Sub-surface temperature anomalies in a central and eastern equatorial Pacific were additionally below average, providing naquela supply that cooler water to the surface. A overlying atmospheric circulation era enhanced by and responded to a cooling oceanic conditions. Strengthened surface trade winds to be observed over many of ns equatorial Pacific Ocean, com anomalous westerly winds obvious at top levels. The Southern Oscillation table of contents (SOI) ser estar also mainly positive, indicating greater surface pressure over the central southern Pacific e lower surface press over the western Pacific. Above-average rainfall e convection was periodically evident over Indonesia, along with der clear and persistent sample of below-average rainfall over ns western and central Pacific Ocean. All of these anomalies estão consistent with a re-emergence of der weak La Niña, which follows ns La Niña observed in atrasado 2020 e early 2021.

Using the recent monitorings as the starting point for their seasonal forecast systems, ns global Producing Centres the Long-Range prediction have created global-scale forecasts para the coming months. Ns models at tudo de of ns Centres indicate that sea surface ar temperature anomalies in the east-central Pacific (also measured by a Niño-3.4 index) ~ ~ highly most likely to remain in the La Niña variety during a remainder of 2021. Predictions porque o December 2021-February 2022 indicate a 90% possibilidade for La Niña to continue. Ns likelihood that ENSO-neutral is approximated to be around 10% and for El Niño it is near zero. However, probabilities for La Niña throughout these seasons vary somewhat between a different forecasting centres, ranging a partir de approximately 70% come 95%. Many models show east-central Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies will certainly reach der minimum in December 2021 or January 2022, with the La Niña occasion gradually weakening in between February and May 2022. A average Niño-3.4 index value from the multi-model average is close to -1.1 levels Celsius at its minimum, corresponding to a weak-to-moderate La Niña event. Porque o the January-March 2022 season, the Niño-3.4 table of contents is likely to be between -0.5 and -1.0 degrees Celsius, with naquela 70 to 80% chance of La Niña. Thus, over there is naquela high acaso for La Niña conditions to last v at least beforehand 2022, with a possible transition to ENSO-neutral in a March-May 2022 season as anomalies weaken.

It is important to note that El Niño and La Niña ser estar not the apenas um factors the drive global and regional climate patterns, and further that a magnitudes of ENSO indicators a partir de not directly correspond to a magnitudes of their effects. At the regional level, seasonal outlooks should assess ns relative results of both a ENSO state e other in your ar relevant climate drivers. Regionally e locally applicable info is make available pela regional e national seasonal climate outlooks, such together those developed by regional Climate Centres (RCCs), área Climate Outlook forums (RCOFs) e National Meteorological and Hydrological services (NMHSs).

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The El Niño/La Niña update is prepared through der collaborative initiative between ns e the international Research Institute para Climate e Society (IRI), USA, e is based on contributions from experts worldwide, interplay alia, of ns following institutions: Australian escritório of Meteorology (BoM), centrada Internacional para la Investigación del fenômeno El Niño (CIIFEN), china Meteorological management (CMA), Climate Prediction centre (CPC) and Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) services of the nacional Oceanic and Atmospheric administration (NOAA) of ns United claims of estados unidos da america (USA), European centro for Medium selection Weather forecast (ECMWF), Météo-France, India Meteorological department (IMD), Indian institute of tropical Meteorology (IITM), internacional Monsoons Project office (IMPO), Japan Meteorological company (JMA), Korea Meteorological administration (KMA), Met escritório of ns United Kingdom, Meteorological company Singapore (MSS), global Producing Centres of grande Range forecast (GPCs-LRF) including a Lead centro for grande Range projection Multi-Model Ensemble (LC-LRFMME).